2011 poisoning stats ‘out’ in every sense of the word

The Scottish Government has today published the 2011 poisoning map (otherwise known as Scotland’s map of shame).

The newspapers are heralding the figures as a success story, as the numbers show an apparent drop in poisoning incidents (“only [only??!] 16 raptors were killed as a result of being illegally poisoned in Scotland – 12 fewer than in 2010 and the lowest death toll since the first maps were published six years ago“, says The Scotsman). The victims included seven buzzards, four red kites, two peregrines, two sparrowhawks and a golden eagle.

On a superficial level this does look like convincing progress, but let’s scratch the surface and see what’s underneath…

The official Scottish government poisoning map only shows the places where poisoned birds were discovered. Given the remote areas involved and the fact that most of these poisoned birds were found by chance (by passing hillwalkers etc.), the official figures can in no way represent the actual number of raptors that were poisoned (but undetected) during 2011.

The figures behind the map also do not show the areas where poisoned baits (but no dead birds) were discovered during 2011. Nor do they show the other incidents of raptor persecution that were discovered during 2011, including shooting, trapping and nest destruction incidents. According to an article in today’s Guardian, it is claimed that last year’s illegal shooting, trapping and nest destruction incidents “have remained constant with previous years“. We’ll have to wait a good few months for the RSPB Birdcrime Report to see the actual figures. (Incidentally, how come the 2011 poisoning figures, as compiled by SASA, have not yet been released to the public? They’re obviously available as they were used to construct the poisoning map. So far they’ve only published data up to September 2011. Isn’t it in the public interest to release them? Why all the secrecy?).

It seems plausible that some shooting estates are doing their best to distance themselves from any sign of illegal raptor persecution, especially in light of the new law on vicarious liability. A likely example of this behaviour was an incident in the Borders in September 2011. A dog walker discovered a bag full of dead raptors by the side of the busy A68  road (see here for earlier blog on this). The police were alerted and the birds were sent to SASA for toxicology tests. The results showed that the two sparrowhawks and two buzzards had been poisoned with the banned pesticide Carbofuran. Because the dead birds had been dumped away from any shooting estate or farm, without being seen, it was virtually impossible for the police to prosecute anyone (SASA reports that the police have now closed the case due to a lack of positive leads – see here). What is the probablity that other estates up and down the country are poisoning raptors on their land and then removing the evidence as far from their location as possible?  It was pure chance that this bag of poisoned raptors was discovered. How many more are left rotting and undiscovered across the country?

But let’s suppose, just for a minute, that the latest map IS an accurate representation of all raptor poisoning incidents that took place in 2011. Should we then accept that shooting estates are cleaning up their act and they’ve all suddenly decided, after over 100 years of persecution, that raptors are actually ok and shouldn’t be killed? The only way to measure that will be to look at LONG-TERM TRENDS of poisoning incidents as well as LONG-TERM TRENDS of raptor populations. We’ve blogged about this before (see here) but it’s worth repeating some of it to show the bigger picture. The graph (adapted from the RSPB’s excellent report: The Illegal Killing of Birds of Prey in Scotland in 2010, see here) shows the long-term trend of poisoning incidents in Scotland from 1989-2010. Look carefully at the graph and you’ll see peaks and troughs in the numbers recorded. Yes, there certainly have been previous drops in the number of poisoning incidents, but then look what happened in the following years – another increase, and then another drop, then another increase etc. Before the game-shooting lobby starts its self-congratulatory back-slapping, we need to see a continuous decline in the number of recorded incidents, AND we need to see raptor populations recovering in those areas where persecution has been endemic. This will take time, but could arguably be judged in about five years’ time.

Of course we all hope that the 2011 figures are the start of a new era in raptor conservation in Scotland. As Environment Minister Stewart Stevenson has said in today’s media: “I hope this proves to be the beginning of a continuing reduction in such cases, leading to the end of this outdated, dangerous and cruel practice“. It is notable that his statement contains more than a hint of caution. That man’s no fool.

See an excellent article about the latest figures in today’s Guardian here

Article in The Scotsman here